Written by Megan Taylor, sports reporter covering international sports since 2020

NRL finals calculations enter a decisive stage before Round 21, with seven weeks remaining in the 2026 Telstra Premiership across Australia and New Zealand. The Penrith Panthers lead on 32 points, but only eight points separate the Dolphins in fifth from the Wests Tigers in 14th, keeping the top-eight race open.

Recent history suggests several clubs will remain in contention until the closing rounds. The finals cut-off was 32 competition points last season and 30 in 2024, meaning one strong winning run could still transform a season.

Tension has already surfaced during the run home, including the incident covered in Jaeman Salmon Rejects ‘Grub’ Claims After Wests Tigers Incident.

Supporters can follow every change through the official 2026 NRL ladder and check each remaining fixture on the official NRL draw. Based on current form, injuries and schedule difficulty, the Penrith Panthers are tipped to finish first, while the Melbourne Storm are forecast to climb into eighth.

Penrith Panthers lead the premiership race

The Penrith Panthers have lost three of their past four matches after controlling the first half of the season, with the State of Origin period testing their depth. A +278 points differential remains the competition’s best, while home games against the Sydney Roosters, Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs and Wests Tigers provide a clear route to first place.

The New Zealand Warriors have continued winning despite injuries to several leading players. Andrew Webster’s side owns a +202 differential and is tipped to finish second, with a home victory over the Penrith Panthers in Round 23 included in the forecast.

The Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks have the most appealing schedule among the leading contenders. Away games against lower-ranked opposition and a home meeting with the Canberra Raiders create the chance for six straight wins before a predicted final-round loss to the Melbourne Storm.

That run would move the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks from fourth to third. The question is whether the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks can maintain their current level for seven more weeks without dropping points in matches they are expected to control.

The Sydney Roosters complete the predicted top four after winning 12 of 17 matches. Injuries have disrupted combinations, but forecast victories over the Newcastle Knights, Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, Wests Tigers, Dolphins and South Sydney Rabbitohs should provide the double chance.

North Queensland Cowboys climb into fifth

The North Queensland Cowboys are tipped to make the biggest rise inside the current top eight, moving from eighth to fifth. Tom Dearden’s return gives the North Queensland Cowboys more direction in attack before a favourable late sequence against the Gold Coast Titans, Parramatta Eels, Wests Tigers and Canberra Raiders.

The Dolphins are projected to finish sixth after recovering from a 66-0 home defeat against the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks. Isaiya Katoa’s expected return should restore structure, while matches against the St George Illawarra Dragons, Parramatta Eels and Gold Coast Titans offer chances to collect the wins needed for a first finals appearance.

The Newcastle Knights have produced a fine response after finishing last in 2025, winning 11 of 18 games. Their closing schedule includes the Sydney Roosters, Brisbane Broncos, Canberra Raiders and New Zealand Warriors, but home victories over the Gold Coast Titans and Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles should be enough for seventh.

The Melbourne Storm are the forecast’s major late mover, climbing from 11th to eighth. Cameron Munster is expected to miss much of the run home, leaving Harry Grant and Jahrome Hughes to guide a side tipped to win five of its final six matches around a Round 24 bye.

South Sydney Rabbitohs face a narrow miss

The South Sydney Rabbitohs sit seventh on 24 points, but injuries, suspensions and a difficult draw could push them to ninth. Consecutive games against the Melbourne Storm and Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks come before later meetings with the New Zealand Warriors and Sydney Roosters, making the next fortnight central to their hopes.

The Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles are also tipped to miss out after losing momentum during the past month. Their +126 differential remains strong, but injuries to Tom Trbojevic and Luke Brooks weaken the spine before matches against the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks, Melbourne Storm and New Zealand Warriors.

The Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs face the harshest schedule of the clubs on 22 points. The New Zealand Warriors, Melbourne Storm and Sydney Roosters await over the next three rounds, with the Penrith Panthers still to come in Round 26.

Only victories over the St George Illawarra Dragons and Brisbane Broncos are forecast for the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs. That would leave the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 11th after spending much of the closing phase within reach of eighth.

Brisbane Broncos cannot recover in time

The Brisbane Broncos ended an eight-match losing run with an away victory over the Penrith Panthers, showing why they cannot be dismissed from individual games. Six wins from 17 matches and a -124 differential, however, make a successful premiership defence highly unlikely.

Four more victories are forecast for the Brisbane Broncos, but losses against the Newcastle Knights, Melbourne Storm and Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs would leave them 12th. The Canberra Raiders are tipped to finish one place lower after losing Hudson Young for the rest of the season.

The Wests Tigers remain mathematically alive but are forecast to win only twice more and finish 14th. The Parramatta Eels face the Penrith Panthers, South Sydney Rabbitohs, North Queensland Cowboys, Dolphins and Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks during a run expected to keep them in 15th.

The Gold Coast Titans can no longer reach the finals despite showing they can trouble stronger teams on their best days. The St George Illawarra Dragons have won only two of 17 matches and are expected to finish last, with the remaining weeks focused on building for 2027 under new head coach Dean Young.

Predicted 2026 NRL final ladder

The forecast places the Melbourne Storm inside the eight at the expense of the South Sydney Rabbitohs and Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles. Several clubs remain separated by one or two wins, but the Penrith Panthers still have the points, differential and schedule to finish first.