The Heisman Trophy race has already taken dramatic twists just five weeks into the 2025–26 college football season, and Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer now finds himself in the national spotlight. Entering the season as a 25-1 longshot, Mateer has quickly risen to become the new betting favorite at +700, overtaking a crowded field of talented quarterbacks across the country.
For much of the summer, the conversation centered on Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning, who opened as the +500 preseason favorite at BetMGM. Hopes were sky-high for Manning to cement himself as the next superstar in Texas football history. However, a disappointing Week 1 performance against Ohio State, where the Longhorns fell flat in a critical non-conference showdown, sent his odds tumbling. Manning’s shaky start immediately created an opening for others to rise.
One of those names was LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier. After Manning’s setback, Nussmeier surged to the top of the Heisman odds in Week 2, priced at +700. At that point, oddsmakers considered him the most likely candidate to carry momentum through the season. But the race for the most prestigious individual award in college football has proven to be as unpredictable as ever.
By Week 3, Nussmeier had slipped, tying Oklahoma’s Mateer at +900. The Sooners quarterback, though not as statistically dominant as others in the field, was beginning to build a reputation as a consistent winner. As one analyst noted, “John Mateer may not have the stats — but Oklahoma QB is a winner.” That reputation, combined with Oklahoma’s resurgence on the national stage, started to shift perception in Mateer’s favor.
Still, Nussmeier had a chance to solidify his case. In Week 3, however, his outing against Florida raised doubts. Completing just 15-of-27 passes for 220 yards with one touchdown and one interception in LSU’s 20-10 win, Nussmeier’s uneven play caused his Heisman stock to dip significantly. His odds quickly dropped to 15-1, while Miami’s Carson Beck surged to the top at +700.
Yet, the winds of change blew once again in Week 4. Mateer led Oklahoma to another big victory, a 24-17 win over then-No. 22 Auburn, showcasing poise in crucial moments. That performance catapulted him into the Heisman driver’s seat. At BetMGM, Mateer is now listed as the favorite at +700, narrowly ahead of Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza at +900.
For Oklahoma, Mateer’s rise represents more than just individual recognition. The Sooners, who opened the year with long playoff odds at 70-1, have seen their College Football Playoff chances slashed to 15-1. It is a remarkable shift that underscores how one player’s leadership can alter the perception of an entire program. With Mateer commanding the offense, Oklahoma looks every bit like a contender once again.
The Sooners’ next test will come after a bye week, when they host Kent State on October 4. That matchup provides Mateer with another opportunity to maintain momentum in front of a home crowd, where Oklahoma fans are already buzzing about the possibility of their quarterback capturing college football’s most coveted prize.
Despite Mateer’s rise, Manning has not been forgotten. He still carries 25-1 odds, and sportsbooks report that he remains the most heavily bet player in the Heisman market, both in terms of number of wagers and total dollars. In fact, Manning continues to be BetMGM’s biggest liability — meaning if he rebounds and ultimately wins, it would be the costliest outcome for sportsbooks.
This dynamic illustrates the balance between performance on the field and public perception in betting markets. While Mateer has earned his spot as the frontrunner through wins, Manning’s name value and fan following keep him firmly in the conversation. Bettors continue to believe that the Longhorns quarterback could rebound and deliver a strong finish, making him a dangerous dark horse.
Meanwhile, other contenders like Beck and Mendoza are quietly building their own cases. Beck’s ability to seize the spotlight in Miami gives him credibility as a serious candidate, while Mendoza’s rise at Indiana is a storyline that few saw coming before the season. Both remain within striking distance and could easily overtake Mateer should the Sooners stumble.
Still, Mateer’s consistency is hard to ignore. Even without gaudy statistical lines, his leadership and ability to close out victories resonate with both voters and oddsmakers. In a race often defined by flashy numbers, Mateer’s story highlights that winning games still matters most. His journey from 25-1 underdog to current betting favorite reflects both Oklahoma’s resurgence and his own steady hand at quarterback.
As the season progresses, the Heisman race will almost certainly see more twists. Injuries, upsets, and breakout performances can completely reshuffle the odds in a matter of weeks. But for now, John Mateer stands atop the betting board, embodying the drama and unpredictability that make college football so compelling. Whether he can hold onto that lead all the way to December remains the question, but one thing is certain: the spotlight is firmly on Oklahoma’s quarterback.