Written by Rhea Alison, Sports reporter, covering international sports since 2020

Australia's World Cup 2026 campaign could continue even if the Socceroos lose their final Group D match against Paraguay. The crucial fixture takes place on Friday afternoon (AEST), and while a win or draw guarantees qualification for the Round of 32, recent results elsewhere have left Australia in a strong position to advance even with a defeat.

Australia Close to Securing Knockout Spot

The expanded 48-team World Cup format allows not only group winners and runners-up to qualify but also the eight best third-placed teams. Following Turkey's defeat to Paraguay, Australia is assured of finishing no lower than third in Group D.

A victory or draw against Paraguay would see the Socceroos finish as group runners-up and progress directly to the knockout stage. In that scenario, they are currently projected to face Iran, though Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand remain possible opponents depending on Group G results.

Defeat May Not End Australia's Tournament

Even if Australia loses, qualification remains highly likely. According to The Athletic, the Socceroos had an estimated 90 percent chance of progressing after Ecuador and Curacao played out a draw. Three points may still be enough to place Australia among the top eight third-placed teams.

Should they qualify in third place, Australia could face powerful group winners such as Germany, France, or Portugal in the Round of 32.

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